Libro de Visitas

Michaelmiz

15 Jun 2025 - 12:00 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Dannyvam

15 Jun 2025 - 09:36 am

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14 Jun 2025 - 05:07 pm

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Andrewphams

14 Jun 2025 - 05:03 pm

Deep below the surface of the ground in one of the driest parts of the country, there is a looming problem: The water is running out — but not the kind that fills lakes, streams and reservoirs.
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The amount of groundwater that has been pumped out of the Colorado River Basin since 2003 is enough to fill Lake Mead, researchers report in a study published earlier this week. Most of that water was used to irrigate fields of alfalfa and vegetables grown in the desert Southwest.

No one knows exactly how much is left, but the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows an alarming rate of withdrawal of a vital water source for a region that could also see its supply of Colorado River water shrink.

“We’re using it faster and faster,” said Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor and the study’s senior author.

In the past two decades, groundwater basins – or large, underground aquifers – lost more than twice the amount of water that was taken out of major surface reservoirs, Famiglietti’s team found, like Mead and Lake Powell, which themselves have seen water levels crash.

The Arizona State University research team measured more than two decades of NASA satellite observations and used land modeling to trace how groundwater tables in the Colorado River basin were dwindling. The team focused mostly on Arizona, a state that is particularly vulnerable to future cutbacks on the Colorado River.
Groundwater makes up about 35% of the total water supply for Arizona, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, who was not directly involved in the study.

The study found groundwater tables in the Lower Colorado River basin, and Arizona in particular, have declined significantly in the last decade. The problem is especially pronounced in Arizona’s rural areas, many of which don’t have groundwater regulations, and little backup supply from rivers. With wells in rural Arizona increasingly running dry, farmers and homeowners now drill thousands of feet into the ground to access water.

Scientists don’t know exactly how much groundwater is left in Arizona, Famiglietti added, but the signs are troubling.

“We have seen dry stream beds for decades,” he said. “That’s an indication that the connection between groundwater and rivers has been lost.”

Steveninwat

14 Jun 2025 - 03:39 pm

Deep below the surface of the ground in one of the driest parts of the country, there is a looming problem: The water is running out — but not the kind that fills lakes, streams and reservoirs.
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The amount of groundwater that has been pumped out of the Colorado River Basin since 2003 is enough to fill Lake Mead, researchers report in a study published earlier this week. Most of that water was used to irrigate fields of alfalfa and vegetables grown in the desert Southwest.

No one knows exactly how much is left, but the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows an alarming rate of withdrawal of a vital water source for a region that could also see its supply of Colorado River water shrink.

“We’re using it faster and faster,” said Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor and the study’s senior author.

In the past two decades, groundwater basins – or large, underground aquifers – lost more than twice the amount of water that was taken out of major surface reservoirs, Famiglietti’s team found, like Mead and Lake Powell, which themselves have seen water levels crash.

The Arizona State University research team measured more than two decades of NASA satellite observations and used land modeling to trace how groundwater tables in the Colorado River basin were dwindling. The team focused mostly on Arizona, a state that is particularly vulnerable to future cutbacks on the Colorado River.
Groundwater makes up about 35% of the total water supply for Arizona, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, who was not directly involved in the study.

The study found groundwater tables in the Lower Colorado River basin, and Arizona in particular, have declined significantly in the last decade. The problem is especially pronounced in Arizona’s rural areas, many of which don’t have groundwater regulations, and little backup supply from rivers. With wells in rural Arizona increasingly running dry, farmers and homeowners now drill thousands of feet into the ground to access water.

Scientists don’t know exactly how much groundwater is left in Arizona, Famiglietti added, but the signs are troubling.

“We have seen dry stream beds for decades,” he said. “That’s an indication that the connection between groundwater and rivers has been lost.”

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14 Jun 2025 - 02:44 pm

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Peterhag

14 Jun 2025 - 02:16 pm

Deep below the surface of the ground in one of the driest parts of the country, there is a looming problem: The water is running out — but not the kind that fills lakes, streams and reservoirs.
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The amount of groundwater that has been pumped out of the Colorado River Basin since 2003 is enough to fill Lake Mead, researchers report in a study published earlier this week. Most of that water was used to irrigate fields of alfalfa and vegetables grown in the desert Southwest.

No one knows exactly how much is left, but the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows an alarming rate of withdrawal of a vital water source for a region that could also see its supply of Colorado River water shrink.

“We’re using it faster and faster,” said Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor and the study’s senior author.

In the past two decades, groundwater basins – or large, underground aquifers – lost more than twice the amount of water that was taken out of major surface reservoirs, Famiglietti’s team found, like Mead and Lake Powell, which themselves have seen water levels crash.

The Arizona State University research team measured more than two decades of NASA satellite observations and used land modeling to trace how groundwater tables in the Colorado River basin were dwindling. The team focused mostly on Arizona, a state that is particularly vulnerable to future cutbacks on the Colorado River.
Groundwater makes up about 35% of the total water supply for Arizona, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, who was not directly involved in the study.

The study found groundwater tables in the Lower Colorado River basin, and Arizona in particular, have declined significantly in the last decade. The problem is especially pronounced in Arizona’s rural areas, many of which don’t have groundwater regulations, and little backup supply from rivers. With wells in rural Arizona increasingly running dry, farmers and homeowners now drill thousands of feet into the ground to access water.

Scientists don’t know exactly how much groundwater is left in Arizona, Famiglietti added, but the signs are troubling.

“We have seen dry stream beds for decades,” he said. “That’s an indication that the connection between groundwater and rivers has been lost.”

Michaelelems

14 Jun 2025 - 12:54 pm

Deep below the surface of the ground in one of the driest parts of the country, there is a looming problem: The water is running out — but not the kind that fills lakes, streams and reservoirs.
кракен ссылка
The amount of groundwater that has been pumped out of the Colorado River Basin since 2003 is enough to fill Lake Mead, researchers report in a study published earlier this week. Most of that water was used to irrigate fields of alfalfa and vegetables grown in the desert Southwest.

No one knows exactly how much is left, but the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows an alarming rate of withdrawal of a vital water source for a region that could also see its supply of Colorado River water shrink.

“We’re using it faster and faster,” said Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor and the study’s senior author.

In the past two decades, groundwater basins – or large, underground aquifers – lost more than twice the amount of water that was taken out of major surface reservoirs, Famiglietti’s team found, like Mead and Lake Powell, which themselves have seen water levels crash.

The Arizona State University research team measured more than two decades of NASA satellite observations and used land modeling to trace how groundwater tables in the Colorado River basin were dwindling. The team focused mostly on Arizona, a state that is particularly vulnerable to future cutbacks on the Colorado River.
Groundwater makes up about 35% of the total water supply for Arizona, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, who was not directly involved in the study.

The study found groundwater tables in the Lower Colorado River basin, and Arizona in particular, have declined significantly in the last decade. The problem is especially pronounced in Arizona’s rural areas, many of which don’t have groundwater regulations, and little backup supply from rivers. With wells in rural Arizona increasingly running dry, farmers and homeowners now drill thousands of feet into the ground to access water.

Scientists don’t know exactly how much groundwater is left in Arizona, Famiglietti added, but the signs are troubling.

“We have seen dry stream beds for decades,” he said. “That’s an indication that the connection between groundwater and rivers has been lost.”

Martinfiz

14 Jun 2025 - 12:52 pm

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